🔮 Prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks with AI | NHL 🏒

Why this pick

The pick is C. Bedard Over 2.5 shots. Over his last 10 games, Connor Bedard went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of 10, averaging 3.2 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 7 of 10 (70%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 6.

Connor Bedard's last 10 games

7 of 10 over 2.5

2.5

3vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 5-3 · 10/14

3vs Winnipeg Jets · 4-3 · 10/16

2vs Dallas Stars · 0-4 · 10/17

1vs Montréal Canadiens · 1-4 · 10/24

2vs Florida Panthers · 2-3 · 10/25

3vs Los Angeles Kings · 2-1 · 10/28

4vs Detroit Red Wings · 1-4 · 10/29

6vs Boston Bruins · 4-5 · 10/31

4vs Colorado Avalanche · 2-5 · 11/03

4vs Florida Panthers · 3-5 · 11/05

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AI Pick for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks – NHL

Connor Bedard Over 2.5 shots on goal (Chicago Blackhawks), at 1.91.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Connor Bedard stat line when it's over.

The starting point is his average: 3.2 per game over the last 10, against a line of 2.5.

That's a 0.7 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 3.6, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 1.1 above the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 7 of the last 10 games, Connor Bedard finished on the pick's side.

At 1.91, break-even means hitting about 5.2 out of every 10; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

In his last 4 games he posted 4, 4, 6, 4 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 7 of 10 across the whole sample.

With a standard deviation of 1.4 across these 10 games, Connor Bedard's output varies a normal amount: the line is 0.5 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 4.67 per game over 3 games.

Tampa Bay Lightning allow 24.8 shots on goal per game over their last 10 (league average: 27.43); that ranks 26 of 32 among the teams that give up the most.

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Connor Bedard clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

If Connor Bedard ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.