🔮 Prediction for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins with AI | NHL 🏒

Why this pick

The pick is N. Robertson Over 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Nick Robertson went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of 12, averaging 2.08 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 5, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Nick Robertson's last 12 games

8 of 12 over 1.5

1.5

1vs Washington Capitals · 3-5 · 10/07

1vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 2-3 · 10/09

2vs Dallas Stars · 2-1 · 10/10

3vs Chicago Blackhawks · 3-5 · 10/14

3vs Colorado Avalanche · 2-5 · 10/17

1vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-6 · 10/18

2vs Utah Mammoth · 4-5 · 10/20

2vs Florida Panthers · 4-0 · 10/22

2vs Nashville Predators · 3-2 · 10/24

5vs Utah Mammoth · 3-4 · 10/29

0vs Montréal Canadiens · 4-5 · 10/31

3vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-3 · 11/04

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AI Pick for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins – NHL

For this matchup the AI picked a prop: Nick Robertson, Over 1.5 shots on goal, at 2.10.

The final score changes nothing; all that counts is what Nick Robertson does.

The starting point is his average: 2.08 per game over the last 12, against a line of 1.5.

That's a 0.58 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 2.2, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 0.7 above the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 12 games.

For odds of 2.10 to pay off you need to hit about 5.7 out of every 12: the Nick Robertson record sits comfortably above that.

The latest games don't change the picture: 3, 0, 5, 2 in the last 4, 3 of 4 on the pick's side, a similar rate to the full sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 1.31 shots on goal: a boom-or-bust player, capable of games far above and far below his average, and the line sits 0.4 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: at home, in the sample, he's at 2.8 per game over 5 games.

The Boston Bruins defense: 28.5 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.43 (rank 11 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Nick Robertson clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

If Nick Robertson ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.