🔮 Prediction for Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals with AI | NFL 🏈

Why this pick

The pick is R. Flournoy Over 3.5 receptions. Over his last 9 games, Ryan Flournoy went over the line of 3.5 receptions in 5 of 9, averaging 3.78 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 5 of 9 (56%).

Across the sample his range runs from 2 to 7.

Ryan Flournoy's last 9 games

5 of 9 over 3.5

3.5

2vs Los Angeles Chargers · 17-34 · 12/21

5vs New York Giants · 17-34 · 01/04

2vs New York Giants · 20-28 · 09/14

5vs Washington Commanders · 37-20 · 09/20

2vs Baltimore Ravens · 31-34 · 09/27

4vs Houston Texans · 34-30 · 10/04

3vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 16-24 · 10/09

7vs Green Bay Packers · 13-23 · 10/19

4vs Philadelphia Eagles · 38-21 · 10/27

Recent winning player props

• New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers ✓ Won

AI Pick for Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals – NFL

The pick is Ryan Flournoy: Over 3.5 receptions at 2.18.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Ryan Flournoy finishes above that number.

The starting point is his average: 3.78 per game over the last 9, against a line of 3.5.

That's a 0.28 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 4.4, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 0.9 above the line.

Game by game against this line, 5 out of 9 would have cashed.

At 2.18, break-even means hitting about 4.1 out of every 9, and the sample is only just above it: the price is fair, not a gift, and the model fills in the rest with the bookmakers' consensus.

In his last 4 games he posted 4, 7, 3, 4 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 5 of 9 across the whole sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 1.72 receptions: a normal spread, and the line sits 0.2 deviations from his average.

He plays at home today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 3 over 4 games, a bit below his norm.

Receptions are the purest volume prop: distance doesn't matter, every catch counts one.

What pushes it is his team having to throw a lot and the quarterback looking for him on short routes.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Ryan Flournoy actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.