🔮 Prediction for Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is J. Brown Over 19.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Jaylen Brown went over the line of 19.5 points in 21 of 20, averaging 25.35 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 21 of 20 (105%).

Across the sample his range runs from 16 to 43.

Jaylen Brown's last 20 games

16 of 20 over 19.5

19.5

43vs Miami Heat · 04/01

26vs Milwaukee Bucks · 04/04

26vs Toronto Raptors · 04/05

35vs Charlotte Hornets · 04/08

23vs New Orleans Pelicans · 04/10

26vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/19

36vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/21

25vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/24

20vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/26

22vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/28

18vs Philadelphia 76ers · 05/01

33vs Philadelphia 76ers · 05/02

19vs New York Knicks · 10/20

21vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 10/22

27vs Milwaukee Bucks · 10/24

16vs Detroit Pistons · 10/25

20vs Indiana Pacers · 10/28

16vs Charlotte Hornets · 10/31

25vs Chicago Bulls · 11/03

30vs Detroit Pistons · 11/05

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AI Pick for Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers – NBA

The pick is Jaylen Brown: Over 19.5 points at 1.94.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Jaylen Brown finishes above that number.

The starting point is his average: 25.35 per game over the last 20, against a line of 19.5.

That's a 5.85 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 23.8, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 4.3 above the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 16 of the last 20 games, Jaylen Brown finished on the pick's side.

For odds of 1.94 to pay off you need to hit about 10.3 out of every 20: the Jaylen Brown record sits comfortably above that.

The latest games don't change the picture: 30, 25, 16, 20 in the last 4, 3 of 4 on the pick's side, a similar rate to the full sample.

With a standard deviation of 7.13 across these 20 games, Jaylen Brown is one of the steady ones: the line is 0.8 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 24.11 per game over 9 games.

He has already faced Cleveland Cavaliers within the sample: 21 points in that game.

The Cleveland Cavaliers defense: 117.13 points allowed per game over 8 games, against a league average of 113.47 (rank 8 of 30, where 1 gives up the most).

Jaylen Brown's points depend on minutes and on the shots that come his way: if he plays a lot and his team looks for him, the line of 19.5 is within reach.

A close game that isn't settled before the fourth quarter is the best setting.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Jaylen Brown clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rule to keep in mind: without Jaylen Brown in the game, the bet is void.